About that Bird Flu Profiteering

I said here that bird flu profiteering was alive and well. Yes, I was right so now I get to say I told you so. I also pointed out that what the world was hysterically carrying on with was merely a lot of bird flu hype, not a sensible description or even intelligent model of reality. Again - oh yes, this feels good - I told you so!

Now back to following the money. Here is a very interesting account of really pretty disturbing money flow. Frankly, all things considered, profiteering, war deaths in Iraq, and plenty of other wickedness, I reckon Rumsfeld should be in jail.

Anyway, here's the scoop.

THE MONEY BEHIND AVIAN FLU

As with the marketing of smallpox vaccine in 2002 [8] and the marketing of SARS in 2003 [6], it's a fairly safe bet the threat of avian flu will disappear as soon as the money has been spent stockpiling the drugs and vaccines. That's the usual pattern. Count on it.

The two remedies for avian flu being hawked daily from every quarter are Tamiflu and a new flu vaccine.

Let's look behind the scenes a little and see whose money is on the line here, and who would benefit from the sale of enough of these drugs for the entire world.

First Tamiflu.

In 1996 two drug giants - Hoffman LaRoche and Gilead Sciences agreed to split the world between them. Gilead had invented a new type of flu drugs called neuraminidase inhibitors, which included Tamiflu. [9] The deal was that LaRoche could research and market the drug worldwide, and Gilead would be paid residuals. Forever.

Gilead Sciences, located in Foster City, California, joined the NASDAQ 100 in 2001. Its 2004 revenues were only $1.3 billion, [9] but that's about to change.

From 1997 until the time he was sworn in as Secretary of Defense in 2001, guess who had been Chairman of the Board of Gilead Sciences. Donald Rumsfeld. Don't believe it? Good. Look at the Dept of Defense website. [10] At present Rumsfeld continues to receive stock and benefits from Gilead, and is a major shareholder. [11]

Another member of Gilead's Board of Directors is George Schultz, whom you may remember as Secretary of Treasury under Nixon. [9] One of the financial directors of the Vietnam war, Schultz is still technically alive.

So. How does the financial future of Gilead appear, with sales of Tamiflu?

Best estimates at present: between $1 - 1.8 billion. And that's just for the US market. [12, 13] Such a figure would double Gilead's total income for 2004. Just for one drug.

Taking the global market into consideration, sales revenue from Tamiflu is virtually "unlimited." [13] A sacred word for investors.

The US Senate approved $3.9 billion for Tamiflu purchase back in Sept 2005 with virtually no discussion. [13] And Gilead smiled.

But the best news for investors is that the Tamiflu windfall will be around for a long time. Again, from the WHO FAQ sheet:

"At present manufacturing capacity, which has recently quadrupled, it will take a decade to produce enough oseltamivir to treat 20% of the world's population." [5]

Oseltamivir - that's Tamiflu.

Keep asking yourself: who would benefit from the threat of pandemic?

Well Tim, good point. So as Tim and I both suggest, if you want to know what's really going on with this bird flu nonsense just ask who benefits from the hype.

You can see Dr O'Shea's whole article at his website. There you'll find all of the sources he cites, such as those indicated in the excerpt above by the numbers (eg. shown like this [5] ). I encourage you to read the whole article because it articulates quite clearly just what a nonsense this so-called bird flu pandemic really is.